Happy Groundhog's Day - Phil vs Max

Punxatawney Phil vs. Mojave Max

Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow this morning… 6 more weeks of winter… in the East, that is. Out here in the desert, we rely on old Mojave Max, the desert tortoise. Phil’s prognostication skills aren’t really all that accurate. According to the Live Science website which used the Groundhog Club's records, “the various incarnations of Punxsutawney Phil have predicted 107 forecasts of more winter and 20 early springs. Data from the Stormfax Almanac's data shows that Phil's six-week prognostications have been correct about 39% of the time. From 1969 on, Phil's overall accuracy rate drops to about 36%.” Even a coin toss is better odds, so relying on Phil is a losing proposition.

That said, Phil does have some competition. There’s Charles G. Hogg, aka Staten Island Chuck who resides at the Staten Island Zoo. I read that Chuck’s accuracy rates are near 80%, but he sure has had a rough time of it. According to the Philadelphia Inquirer, “In 2009, Chuck bit then-Mayor Michael Bloomberg and was secretly replaced by his granddaughter, Charlotte for the 2014 ceremony. Unfortunately, then-Mayor Bill di Blasio, dropped Charlotte on the ground and the groundhog died several days later.’ Ouch!

Milltown, New Jersey has Milltown Mel who unfortunately died a few days ago, leaving Milltown without a prognosticator for this year. RIP, Mel.

So why celebrate on February 2nd in the first place? According to WeAreCentralPA.com “The tradition was first brought to America by German settlers who originally adopted it from a European Christian holiday called Candlemas Day, according to the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club. Christians on Feb. 2 would have their candles blessed to bring protection to their homes for the rest of the winter. The German adaptation of the holiday involved a hedgehog that would predict six more weeks of bad weather or a “Second Winter” if the animal casts a shadow. Since hedgehogs are not native to the United States, the mammal was changed to a groundhog.” Like so many holidays in the USA, Groundhog’s Day is based on an old European tradition adapted to the New World.

Ah… but I digress… Mojave Max. Max has his own web page and he isn’t shy about telling his story. “Mojave Max is a real live Desert Tortoise who lives at Springs Preserve in Las Vegas. Like other Southern Nevada reptiles, Max enters a burrow to brumate (the reptilian form of hibernation) every winter and emerges every spring. Mojave Max’s emergence marks the unofficial start of spring in Southern Nevada. Mojave Max officially emerged from his burrow Thursday, April 15, 2021 at 11:34 am. The earliest he has emerged was February 14, 2005 at 11:55 am. The latest he has emerged is April 17, 2012, at 12:41 pm.” No shadow, no disturbing a peaceful sleep, no danger of being dropped on his head.… “Warmer temperatures, longer daylight hours, and his own internal clock are factors known to contribute to his emergence every year.” When it’s spring, it’s spring. The later he emerges, the later the warm weather. Incidentally, local folks bet on the date of his emergence. After all, this is Las Vegas.

So, we’ll ignore Phil’s oft-wrong prognostications and wait for Max to peek out of his burrow. Incidentally, my bet is March 17th.