Blue View – Should we take one for the team?

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A few days ago, Texas Lt. Governor Dan Patrick, who is about to turn 70, said. "No one reached out to me and said as a senior citizen, are you willing to take a chance on your survival in exchange for keeping the America that all America loves for your children and grandchildren? And if that's the exchange, I'm all in." He is of the opinion that America should get back to work as soon as possible, and if a bunch of us old people and others at risk die because of it, that’s a sacrifice we should be willing to take for the good of the country. Does he have a valid point? Are we being selfish? Should we older citizens be willing to martyr ourselves for the greater good?

Consider this – someone is certainly going to have to pay for the economic stimulus package. Two trillion dollars is a big debt. Just a few weeks ago, economists were aghast that the national debt had risen to $1 trillion – now, in one fell swoop, we’ve added $2 trillion more. How high will we be raising taxes? How much and where will we cut the budget? Since most of us in the ‘at risk group’ are on social security or disability, we probably won’t be the ones paying for it. It’s going to be our kids and grandkids that are going to have to pay the piper for the plan.

So is that fair?

Let’s look at it from an objective dollar and cents point of view. First, we must decide how much a human life is worth. EPA sets it at $9.1 million . In evaluating tighter air pollution standards, for example, the cost of implementing the changes is compared to the number of lives saved at $9.1 million each. The Department of Transportation sets the value at $9.6 million. When evaluating legislation to require stronger roof supports in autos, it was estimated that 135 lives would be saved each year in rollover accidents. Multiplying 135 by $9.6 million results in a number that is larger than the cost of reinforcing the car roofs, so the legislation was passed. Of course, the added cost is passed on to the consumer, so everyone that buys a new car is sharing in the cost of saving those 135 lives each year.

Another way of calculating the value of human life is to base it on the number of quality years left. One could argue that the life of a 25 year old is worth more than that of an 85 year old. Many private and government health plans use $129,000 per years left as the standard – utilized when deciding whether to cover a new medical procedure, for example. In the US, life expectancy is currently 78.6 years, so the value of a 25 year old would be about $6.9 million, while the 85 year old was fully depreciated six years ago.

We need to choose a number, so I’ll arbitrarily pick a number between the EPS and DOT valuations for a human life - say $9.3 million. I also found an estimate for the average cost of a hospital stay to treat a case of Covid-19 - $20,292.

Now let’s look at the impact the coronavirus will have on our society. Using the latest estimates by epidemiologists, I found the following:

If America goes back to work after a two week hiatus:

  • 128 million people will be infected

  • 12.8 million people will be hospitalized

  • 1.2 million people will die

Using the dollar figures from above, the cost of the hospitalizations and the value of the lives lost, we come up with a figure of $11.5 trillion.

Now, let’s see what the costs are if all us old folks are willing to be martyrs. Not only are we up for sacrificing ourselves for the greater good, but we even refuse to go to the hospital when we contract the virus, leaving all those life saving ventilators and ICU beds for younger people. It’s estimated that 70% of the deaths will be people over 65, while 30% of the deaths occur with younger people. If we assume the same ratios apply for hospitalizations, then:

  • 3.8 million young people will be hospitalized

  • 360,000 young people will die

  • Cost to society if we let it run its course: $11.2 trillion * 30% = $3.36 trillion

(This, of course, also suggests that we will find the millions of hospital beds and ventilators needed to treat all those sick people).

On the other hand, if we shelter in place for 2 months, it’s estimated that:

  • 14 million people will be infected

  • 1.4 million people will be hospitalized

  • 140,000 people will die

Using the same dollar amounts for the calculations, but assuming all of us in the ‘at risk’ category get the same medical attention as everyone else, the valuation is $1.3 trillion, slightly less than a third of the cost if we just let it run its course and get America back to work as soon as possible.

I started this blog thinking it would be somewhat tongue in cheek. I was even going to add a line about how Social Security will be much healthier if a large number of us geriatrics gave it up for the betterment of society - maybe even include a reference to the old movie Soylent Green. But after putting the numbers together, my perspective changed. It’s not possible to treat this lightly when even the best case numbers project that 1.4 million Americans will require hospitalization, and 140,000 will die.

Stay healthy my friends…